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In-depth analysis & commentary

In-depth reporting and explainers on the forces moving money and the world — educational, sourced, and never promotional.

MARKETS

Asia Markets Cautious as Oil Tops $92 and Japan’s 10-Year Yield Hits 3% for the First Time Since 1996

The US-Iran conflict escalated sharply overnight as President Trump threatened a "hard" response against Tehran following an exchange of fire that broke a month-long lull. US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz were met with Iranian missile attacks on US military positions in Jordan. Brent crude surged above $92 per barrel as markets braced for further escalation. Here is the overnight picture and what comes next.

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MARKETS

Asia Markets Tumble as Oil Surges Past $91 and Fed Turns Hawkish: A Rough Start to the Week

Overnight, the United States conducted its first military strikes against Iran in over a month, targeting rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz after detecting preparations to deploy sea mines. Iran retaliated swiftly — launching ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan and Al-Minhad airbase in the UAE. Jordan intercepted eight incoming missiles. Oil surged past $91 per barrel. The month-long military pause is over. Here is what the overnight escalation means and where it goes from here.

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MARKETS

Warsh Rattles Bond Markets at Jackson Hole While Trump Seizes Venezuelan Oil

A catastrophic glacier collapse on the Nepal-Tibet border has left over 500 dead and nearly 1,900 missing, triggering one of the worst Himalayan disasters in decades. Rescue efforts face massive challenges, China is restricting information flow from its side of the border, and 93,000 people need urgent aid. Among the missing are at least 90 Americans and 33 British nationals. The disaster exposes the intersection of climate change, infrastructure vulnerability, and great-power competition. Here is what the crisis reveals about the fragility of the region — and why it matters beyond the immediate tragedy.

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MARKETS

Asian Markets Tumble as China PMI Misses — Yen Surges on Safe-Haven Flows

At 10:00 a.m. ET today, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will step up to the podium at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and deliver the first Jackson Hole keynote of his tenure. It is, by any measure, one of the most closely watched speeches of the year — not because anyone expects a policy announcement, but because it is the clearest window markets will get into how the Fed's new chair thinks, three weeks before the September 16 FOMC meeting.

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MARKETS

Gold Surges 15% in August—Largest Monthly Gain Since 1999 as ‘Debasement Trade’ Accelerates

The July Federal Reserve minutes revealed three members arguing for a rate hike and a chairman insisting on a “data-dependent” stance, reframing the market’s easing narrative. Treasury yields surged across the curve, overriding the calming effect of the Treasury’s buyback program, while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell roughly 1%. We unpack what higher yields mean for the cost of capital, why sectors rotated the way they did, and how a $40 trillion national debt tightens the link between fiscal and monetary policy. Educational, not financial advice.

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MARKETS

PCE Inflation at 3.7%: Markets Rally Despite Sticky Inflation Data

The World Bank now sees global growth slowing to 2.5% in 2026 — its weakest pace since 2020 — while the IMF models a scenario range from 3.1% down to 2.0% if the Strait of Hormuz stays restricted. We unpack the stagflationary mechanics, the disproportionate burden falling on emerging markets, the structural tax of geopolitical fragmentation, and why AI investment is the one genuine bright spot in a downside world.

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MARKETS

U.S. Launches ‘Operation Economic Outcast’: Iran Sanctions Escalation and Market Impact

From protracted conflict in Eastern Europe and the Middle East to fragmenting trade blocs and a two-speed recovery between the US and the rest of the world, 2026 demands a portfolio built for divergence. We map the macro crosscurrents — sticky services inflation, fiscal drift, a stronger-for-longer dollar — and what they mean for asset allocation, duration, and geographic exposure.

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